What is the term for the likelihood of a threat scenario occurring and leading to the final consequence considering all protective measures?

The term that best describes the likelihood of a threat scenario occurring and ultimately leading to a final consequence, while taking into account all protective measures, is known as Mitigated Threat Likelihood (MTL). This concept emphasizes the assessment of risk by evaluating the inherent threat likelihood in conjunction with the existing protective measures and controls that are in place.

Mitigated Threat Likelihood reflects how the implementation of those security controls can reduce or mitigate the original likelihood of a threat. Therefore, it provides a more accurate representation of the actual risk level faced by a system, recognizing that not all threats will manifest due to these protective measures. This understanding is crucial in risk assessment as it allows organizations to make informed decisions on where to allocate resources and enhance their security posture.

Other terms such as Estimated Threat Probability might refer to the initial assessment of likelihood without considering the impact of existing controls. Actual Threat Severity focuses on the potential impact of a threat rather than its likelihood, while Potential Risk Level generally encompasses both likelihood and consequence but does not specifically address the mitigation aspect in the context given. Thus, Mitigated Threat Likelihood is the most precise term suited for the situation described in the question.